Derivatives have made the international and financial headlines in the past for mostly with their association with spectacular losses or institutional collapses. But market players have traded derivatives successfully for centuries and the daily international turnover in derivatives trading runs into billions of dollars.

Are derivative instruments that can only be traded by experienced, specialist traders? Although it is true that complicated mathematical models are used for pricing some derivatives, the basic concepts and principles underpinning derivatives and their trading are quite easy to grasp and understand. Indeed, derivatives are used increasingly by market players ranging from governments, corporate treasurers, dealers and brokers and individual investors.

Indian scenario

While forward contracts and exchange traded in futures has grown by leaps and bound, Indian stock markets have been largely slow to these global changes. However, in the last few years, there has been substantial improvement in the functioning of the securities market. Requirements of adequate capitalization for market intermediaries, margining and establishment of clearing corporations have reduced market and credit risks. However, there were inadequate advanced risk management tools. And after the ICE (Information, Communication, Entertainment) meltdown the market regulator felt that in order to deepen and strengthen the cash market trading of derivatives like futures and options was imperative.

To understand the use and functioning of the index derivatives markets, it is necessary to understand the underlying index. A stock index represents the change in value of a set of stocks, which constitute the index. A market index is very important for the market players as it acts as a barometer for market behavior and as an underlying in derivative instruments such as index futures.

The Sensex and Nifty

In India the most popular indices have been the BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty. The BSE Sensex has 30 stocks comprising the index which are selected based on market capitalization, industry representation, trading frequency etc. It represents 30 large well-established and financially sound companies. The Sensex represents a broad spectrum of companies in a variety of industries. It represents 14 major industry groups. Then there is a BSE national index and BSE 200. However, trading in index futures has only commenced on the BSE Sensex.

While the BSE Sensex was the first stock market index in the country, Nifty was launched by the National Stock Exchange in April 1996 taking the base of November 3, 1995. The Nifty index consists of shares of 50 companies with each having a market capitalization of more than Rs 500 crore.

Futures and stock indices

For understanding of stock index futures a thorough knowledge of the composition of indexes is essential. Choosing the right index is important in choosing the right contract for speculation or hedging. Since for speculation, the volatility of the index is important whereas for hedging the choice of index depends upon the relationship between the stocks being hedged and the characteristics of the index.

Choosing and understanding the right index is important as the movement of stock index futures is quite similar to that of the underlying stock index. Volatility of the futures indexes is generally greater than spot stock indexes.

Everytime an investor takes a long or short position on a stock, he also has an hidden exposure to the Nifty or Sensex. As most often stock values fall in tune with the entire market sentiment and rise when the market as a whole is rising.

Retail investors will find the index derivatives useful due to the high correlation of the index with their portfolio/stock and low cost associated with using index futures for hedging.

A futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in the future at a certain price. Index futures are all futures contracts where the underlying is the stock index (Nifty or Sensex) and helps a trader to take a view on the market as a whole.

Index futures permits speculation and if a trader anticipates a major rally in the market he can simply buy a futures contract and hope for a price rise on the futures contract when the rally occurs. We shall learn in subsequent lessons how one can leverage ones position by taking position in the futures market.

In India we have index futures contracts based on S&P CNX Nifty and the BSE Sensex and near 3 months duration contracts are available at all times. Each contract expires on the last Thursday of the expiry month and simultaneously a new contract is introduced for trading after expiry of a contract.

Example:

Futures contracts in Nifty in July 2001

                                On July 27

The permitted lot size is 200 or multiples thereof for the Nifty. That is you buy one Nifty contract the total deal value will be 200*1100 (Nifty value)= Rs 2,20,000.

In the case of BSE Sensex the market lot is 50. That is you buy one Sensex futures the total value will be 50*4000 (Sensex value)= Rs 2,00,000.

The index futures symbols are represented as follows:

In subsequent lessons we will learn about the pricing of index futures

A futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in the future at a certain price. Index futures are all futures contracts where the underlying is the stock index (Nifty or Sensex) and helps a trader to take a view on the market as a whole.

Index futures permits speculation and if a trader anticipates a major rally in the market he can simply buy a futures contract and hope for a price rise on the futures contract when the rally occurs. We shall learn in subsequent lessons how one can leverage ones position by taking position in the futures market.

In India we have index futures contracts based on S&P CNX Nifty and the BSE Sensex and near 3 months duration contracts are available at all times. Each contract expires on the last Thursday of the expiry month and simultaneously a new contract is introduced for trading after expiry of a contract.

Example:

Futures contracts in Nifty in July 2001

                                On July 27

The permitted lot size is 200 or multiples thereof for the Nifty. That is you buy one Nifty contract the total deal value will be 200*1100 (Nifty value)= Rs 2,20,000.

In the case of BSE Sensex the market lot is 50. That is you buy one Sensex futures the total value will be 50*4000 (Sensex value)= Rs 2,00,000.

The index futures symbols are represented as follows:

In subsequent lessons we will learn about the pricing of index futures.

We have seen how one can take a view on the market with the help of index futures. The other benefit of trading in index futures is to hedge your portfolio against the risk of trading. In order to understand how one can protect his portfolio from value erosion let us take an example.

Illustration:

Ram enters into a contract with Shyam that six months from now he will sell to Shyam 10 dresses for Rs 4000. The cost of manufacturing for Ram is only Rs 1000 and he will make a profit of Rs 3000 if the sale is completed.

However, Ram fears that Shyam may not honour his contract six months from now. So he inserts a new clause in the contract that if Shyam fails to honour the contract he will have to pay a penalty of Rs 1000. And if Shyam honours the contract Ram will offer a discount of Rs 1000 as incentive.

As we see above if Shyam defaults Ram will get a penalty of Rs 1000 but he will recover his initial investment. If Shyam honours the contract, Ram will still make a profit of Rs 2000. Thus, Ram has hedged his risk against default and protected his initial investment.

The above example explains the concept of hedging. Let us try understanding how one can use hedging in a real life scenario.

Stocks carry two types of risk – company specific and market risk. While company risk can be minimized by diversifying your portfolio market risk cannot be diversified but has to be hedged. So how does one measure the market risk? Market risk can be known from Beta.

Beta measures the relationship between movement of the index to the movement of the stock. The beta measures the percentage impact on the stock prices for 1% change in the index. Therefore, for a portfolio whose value goes down by 11% when the index goes down by 10%, the beta would be 1.1. When the index increases by 10%, the value of the portfolio increases 11%. The idea is to make beta of your portfolio zero to nullify your losses.

Hedging involves protecting an existing asset position from future adverse price movements. In order to hedge a position, a market player needs to take an equal and opposite position in the futures market to the one held in the cash market. Every portfolio has a hidden exposure to the index, which is denoted by the beta. Assuming you have a portfolio of Rs 1 million, which has a beta of 1.2, you can factor a complete hedge by selling Rs 1.2 mn of S&P CNX Nifty futures.

Steps:

1. Determine the beta of the portfolio. If the beta of any stock is not known, it is safe to assume that it is 1.

2. Short sell the index in such a quantum that the gain on a unit decrease in the index would offset the losses on the rest of his portfolio. This is achieved by multiplying the relative volatility of the portfolio by the market value of his holdings.

Therefore in the above scenario we have to shortsell 1.2 * 1 million = 1.2 million worth of Nifty.

Now let us study the impact on the overall gain/loss that accrues:

As we see, that portfolio is completely insulated from any losses arising out of a fall in market sentiment. But as a cost, one has to forego any gains that arise out of improvement in the overall sentiment. Then why does one invest in equities if all the gains will be offset by losses in futures market. The idea is that everyone expects his portfolio to outperform the market. Irrespective of whether the market goes up or not, his portfolio value would increase.

The same methodology can be applied to a single stock by deriving the beta of the scrip and taking a reverse position in the futures market.

Thus, we have seen how one can use hedging in the futures market to offset losses in the cash market.

Speculators are those who do not have any position on which they enter in futures and options market. They only have a particular view on the market, stock, commodity etc. In short, speculators put their money at risk in the hope of profiting from an anticipated price change. They consider various factors such as demand supply, market positions, open interests, economic fundamentals and other data to take their positions.

Illustration:

Ram is a trader but has no time to track and analyze stocks. However, he fancies his chances in predicting the market trend. So instead of buying different stocks he buys Sensex Futures.

On May 1, 2001, he buys 100 Sensex futures @ 3600 on expectations that the index will rise in future. On June 1, 2001, the Sensex rises to 4000 and at that time he sells an equal number of contracts to close out his position.

Selling Price : 4000*100            = Rs 4,00,000

Less: Purchase Cost: 3600*100 = Rs 3,60,000

Net gain                                              Rs 40,000

Ram has made a profit of Rs 40,000 by taking a call on the future value of the Sensex. However, if the Sensex had fallen he would have made a loss. Similarly, if would have been bearish he could have sold Sensex futures and made a profit from a falling profit. In index futures players can have a long-term view of the market up to atleast 3 months.

An arbitrageur is basically risk averse. He enters into those contracts were he can earn riskless profits. When markets are imperfect, buying in one market and simultaneously selling in other market gives riskless profit. Arbitrageurs are always in the look out for such imperfections.

In the futures market one can take advantages of arbitrage opportunities by buying from lower priced market and selling at the higher priced market. In index futures arbitrage is possible between the spot market and the futures market (NSE has provided a special software for buying all 50 Nifty stocks in the spot market.

• Take the case of the NSE Nifty.

• Assume that Nifty is at 1200 and 3 month’s Nifty futures is at 1300.

• The futures price of Nifty futures can be worked out by taking the interest cost of 3 months into account.

• If there is a difference then arbitrage opportunity exists.

Let us take the example of single stock to understand the concept better. If Wipro is quoted at Rs 1000 per share and the 3 months futures of Wipro is Rs 1070 then one can purchase ITC at Rs 1000 in spot by borrowing @ 12% annum for 3 months and sell Wipro futures for 3 months at Rs 1070.

Sale                = 1070

Cost= 1000+30 = 1030

Arbitrage profit =    40

These kind of imperfections continue to exist in the markets but one has to be alert to the opportunities as they tend to get exhausted very fast.

An arbitrageur is basically risk averse. He enters into those contracts were he can earn riskless profits. When markets are imperfect, buying in one market and simultaneously selling in other market gives riskless profit. Arbitrageurs are always in the look out for such imperfections.

In the futures market one can take advantages of arbitrage opportunities by buying from lower priced market and selling at the higher priced market. In index futures arbitrage is possible between the spot market and the futures market (NSE has provided a special software for buying all 50 Nifty stocks in the spot market.

• Take the case of the NSE Nifty.

• Assume that Nifty is at 1200 and 3 month’s Nifty futures is at 1300.

• The futures price of Nifty futures can be worked out by taking the interest cost of 3 months into account.

• If there is a difference then arbitrage opportunity exists.

Let us take the example of single stock to understand the concept better. If Wipro is quoted at Rs 1000 per share and the 3 months futures of Wipro is Rs 1070 then one can purchase ITC at Rs 1000 in spot by borrowing @ 12% annum for 3 months and sell Wipro futures for 3 months at Rs 1070.

Sale                = 1070

Cost= 1000+30 = 1030

Arbitrage profit =    40

These kind of imperfections continue to exist in the markets but one has to be alert to the opportunities as they tend to get exhausted very fast.

The index futures are the most popular futures contracts as they can be used in a variety of ways by various participants in the market.

How many times have you felt of making risk-less profits by arbitraging between the underlying and futures markets. If so, you need to know the cost-of-carry model to understand the dynamics of pricing that constitute the estimation of fair value of futures.

The cost of carry model

The cost-of-carry model where the price of the contract is defined as:

F=S+C

where:

F Futures price

S Spot price

C Holding costs or carry costs

If F < S+C or F > S+C, arbitrage opportunities would exist i.e. whenever the futures price moves away from the fair value, there would be chances for arbitrage.

If Wipro is quoted at Rs 1000 per share and the 3 months futures of Wipro is Rs 1070 then one can purchase Wipro at Rs 1000 in spot by borrowing @ 12% annum for 3 months and sell Wipro futures for 3 months at Rs 1070.

Here F=1000+30=1030 and is less than prevailing futures price and hence there are chances of arbitrage.

Sale                 = 1070

Cost= 1000+30 = 1030

Arbitrage profit       40

However, one has to remember that the components of holding cost vary with contracts on different assets.

We have seen how we have to consider the cost of finance to arrive at the futures index value. However, the cost of finance has to be adjusted for benefits of dividends and interest income. In the case of equity futures, the holding cost is the cost of financing minus the dividend returns.

Example:

Suppose a stock portfolio has a value of Rs 100 and has an annual dividend yield of 3% which is earned throughout the year and finance rate=10% the fair value of the stock index portfolio after one year will be F= Rs 100 + Rs 100 * (0.10 – 0.03)

Futures price = Rs 107

If the actual futures price of one-year contract is Rs 109. An arbitrageur can buy the stock at Rs 100, borrowing the fund at the rate of 10% and simultaneously sell futures at Rs 109. At the end of the year, the arbitrageur would collect Rs 3 for dividends, deliver the stock portfolio at Rs 109 and repay the loan of Rs 100 and interest of Rs 10.

The net profit would be Rs 109 + Rs 3 - Rs 100 - Rs 10 = Rs 2.

Thus, we can arrive at the fair value in the case of dividend yield.

Speculation

We have seen earlier that trading in index futures helps in taking a view of the market, hedging, speculation and arbitrage. In this module we will see one can trade in index futures and use forward contracts in each of these instances.

Taking a view of the market

Have you ever felt that the market would go down on a particular day and feared that your portfolio value would erode?

There are two options available

Option 1: Sell liquid stocks such as Reliance

Option 2: Sell the entire index portfolio

The problem in both the above cases is that it would be very cumbersome and costly to sell all the stocks in the index. And in the process one could be vulnerable to company specific risk. So what is the option? The best thing to do is to sell index futures.

Scenario 1:

On July 13, 2001, ‘X’ feels that the market will rise so he buys 200 Nifties with an expiry date of July 26 at an index price of 1442 costing Rs 2,88,400 (200*1442).

On July 21 the Nifty futures have risen to 1520 so he squares off his position at 1520.

‘X’ makes a profit of Rs 15,600 (200*78)

Scenario 2:

On July 20, 2001, ‘X’ feels that the market will fall so he sells 200 Nifties with an expiry date of July 26 at an index price of 1523 costing Rs 3,04,600 (200*1523).

On July 21 the Nifty futures falls to 1456 so he squares off his position at 1456.

‘X’ makes a profit of Rs 13,400 (200*67).

In the above cases ‘X’ has profited from speculation i.e. he has wagered in the hope of profiting from an anticipated price change

The margining system is based on the JR Verma Committee recommendations. The actual margining happens on a daily basis while online position monitoring is done on an intra-day basis.

Daily margining is of two types:

1. Initial margins

2. Mark-to-market profit/loss

The computation of initial margin on the futures market is done using the concept of Value-at-Risk (VaR). The initial margin amount is large enough to cover a one-day loss that can be encountered on 99% of the days. VaR methodology seeks to measure the amount of value that a portfolio may stand to lose within a certain horizon time period (one day for the clearing corporation) due to potential changes in the underlying asset market price. Initial margin amount computed using VaR is collected up-front.

The daily settlement process called "mark-to-market" provides for collection of losses that have already occurred (historic losses) whereas initial margin seeks to safeguard against potential losses on outstanding positions. The mark-to-market settlement is done in cash.

Let us take a hypothetical trading activity of a client of a NSE futures division to demonstrate the margins payments that would occur.

• A client purchases 200 units of FUTIDX NIFTY 29JUN2001 at Rs 1500.
• The initial margin payable as calculated by VaR is 15%.

Total long position = Rs 3,00,000 (200*1500)

Initial margin (15%) = Rs 45,000

Assuming that the contract will close on Day + 3 the mark-to-market position will look as follows:

Position on Day 1

New position on Day 2

Value of new position = 1,400*200= 2,80,000

Margin = 42,000

Position on Day 3

Value of new position = 1510*200 = Rs 3,02,000

Margin = Rs 3,300

Margin account*

Initial margin                =       Rs 45,000

Margin released (Day 1) =  (-) Rs  3,000

Position on Day 2                  Rs 42,000

Addn margin                =  (+) Rs  3,300

Total margin in a/c                Rs 45,300*

Net gain/loss

Day 1 (loss)                =     (Rs 17,000)

Day 2 Gain                  =      Rs 18,700

Day 3 Gain                  =       Rs 18,000

Total Gain                   =       Rs 19,700

The client has made a profit of Rs 19,700 at the end of Day 3 and the total cash inflow at the close of trade is Rs 63,300.

All trades in the futures market are cash settled on a T+1 basis and all positions (buy/sell) which are not closed out will be marked-to-market. The closing price of the index futures will be the daily settlement price and the position will be carried to the next day at the settlement price.

The most common way of liquidating an open position is to execute an offsetting futures transaction by which the initial transaction is squared up. The initial buyer liquidates his long position by selling identical futures contract.

In index futures the other way of settlement is cash settled at the final settlement. At the end of the contract period the difference between the contract value and closing index value is paid.

All trades in the futures market are cash settled on a T+1 basis and all positions (buy/sell) which are not closed out will be marked-to-market. The closing price of the index futures will be the daily settlement price and the position will be carried to the next day at the settlement price.

The most common way of liquidating an open position is to execute an offsetting futures transaction by which the initial transaction is squared up. The initial buyer liquidates his long position by selling identical futures contract.

In index futures the other way of settlement is cash settled at the final settlement. At the end of the contract period the difference between the contract value and closing index value is paid.